on software licensing landscape. What could it look like in 2015?

It's interesting to read again the story of how Microsoft could achieve the position is in right now, and it's interesting to think of how software could look like in 5 years.
In my opinion the landscape is facing structural changes which will affect tremendously the way software is being produced and delivered. In fact, the more big companies invest in cloud computing, the less there will be the need for software to be downloaded. The danger for big software corporations is somehow still very far but yet real. Companies such as Google are constantly investing in software to be run on their server, without any licence needed for the users (instead, an agreement of use) and soon they will deliver a whole operating system that will only rely on web services.
It is interesting to see how other companies are reacting to this. Microsoft, for example, had to develop an "online office" to face Google Docs, and this is a clear sign that something is changing (especially if we consider that Office has always been one of the most profitable softwares for Microsoft)
My prediction is, therefore, that lots of software and services will move on the web and follow its rules and economics. Companies will continue looking for user's lock in and will try to offer free solutions with "pro" payment possibilities or ad based services.
On the other hand, some companies will continue developing "proper" software and probably offer it as commercial software.